From: eric@flesch.org (Eric Flesch)
Subject: Solution to Fermi Paradox right here!
Date: 1998/12/24
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The "Fermi Paradox" asks that since it would seem there must be lots
of ET's out there, why haven't they arrived here?  The solution is
that the "paradox" is just an artifact of selection effects. 

When we choose to examine this universe, we are applying the ultimate
selection effect:  we are requiring that the universe under
consideration have at least one civilization in it, i.e. our own.   To
check this, imagine that we lived in universe "E3hj56tr7-030t" instead
of this one.  Which universe would we then apply the "Fermi paradox"
to?  Why that one, of course.  So the starting point of our
ruminations is a universe *containing us*.  We have decided this rule,
we have made this a requirement.  And this rule is what generates the
so-called Fermi Paradox, as we have biased our universal sample to
where we have lost track of what is probable and what is improbable.

The key point is to understand the total difference between this
starting point, and the alternative of a random universe.  If we were
to choose a universe randomly, we might choose universe
"T8hk13qa93-431c" instead of our own, but our inspection would
(likely) reveal no life at all.  Further examination might find that
only 1 in e.g. 10^200 universes contains life.  With such a ratio, it
would be most improbable that there is any life in *this* universe
other than our own.  And there is no paradox.

However, if from this set of "all universes" you take an improbable
subset of all universes *which contain at least one civilization*, and
then pretend in your dream of dreams that you have taken a fair
sample, then you might think that the proposition that all these
universes should have only one civilization each would be outlandish.
You would say "we have a paradox here".

But there is no paradox.  The mistake is in the biased sample that we
have taken, the set of all universes which contain at least one
civilization.   If we rectify our set to include *all* universes, then
we have an arbitrary number of universes without any life for each
universe which does have life.  And if the ratio is large enough, then
the chances of there being any ETs in our universe becomes vanishingly
small.

Put on a smaller scale, we have mandated that as a starting point we
shall select a universe which contains us.  Using that as a starting
point, it is immediate that our presence in this universe has no
predictive value whatsoever on the chances of there being any other
civilizations in this universe.  So there is no paradox.

It is said by some that there is something wrong with our assumptions
when we evaluate the Fermi Paradox.  The above is what that "something
wrong" is.  Our sample is biased, and we think our starting point is
"this universe" when in fact our starting point is "this universe
containing us".   Fix up this concept and it all becomes clear.

As a minor note, I find it odd that some people find it depressing to
consider a universe devoid of any civilizations bar our own.  The
whole universe is ours!  Is that depressing?  I think not!

Eric Flesch